Where is the next generation of pastors going to come from? Part One.

The ongoing pastor drought shows no sign of breaking.

The prevailing El Niño conditions have been observed for quite some time. Even before the pandemic, Eternity News reported on the looming shortage—across all denominations—in which the number of people studying for pastoral ministry was less than those who were retiring, observing, “there’s a growing drought of ‘theologs,’ people studying full-time degree courses with the aim of paid ministry.” This is being experienced across the Western world, with even the most prestigious seminaries experiencing declining enrolments. And in the US, of those who enrol, more than 80 per cent are not intending to enter pastoral ministry in a local church. Meanwhile, in my own denomination—in which we have committed to growing to a thousand healthy churches in a generation—there are currently around thirty known pastoral vacancies. However you look at it, the next generation is not answering the call in sufficient numbers to lead our churches.

Part of the answer will come from the formation of a La Niña system, for those churches whose theological understanding allows for it; I can attest to the strong numbers of gifted and capable female students graduating from my own college, and have greatly valued the presence of women on the pastoral team in my church. But this, on its own, will still not be enough.

We need more discussion—from churches, Bible colleges, and denominational leaders—about the factors that are hindering the next generation from entering local church pastoral ministry. As a way of contributing to that conversation, this is the first in a series of posts about some of those factors that I’ve observed over the past few years as I’ve been asking this question. I’m presenting them to get us talking, to think of potential solutions, and to encourage more formal research (as a lot of this is anecdotal).

Note that I’m not talking about the factors involved in people, especially among younger generations, leaving the church; there’s been plenty of discussion about that. I’m asking the question about those who are in the church; who are committed to it. Why are so few stepping up to lead it?

I’m also not attempting to be exhaustive. McCrindle Research, in 2020, identified some of the challenges involved in developing a leadership pipeline: “the range of career options for young people; the loss of respect for clergy as a profession; parental pressure to go into a career that pays well; [and] the lack of clear structures and systems for developing leaders” (p.11). And I’ve previously written on one other factor: the spectacular failure of the superstar/entrepreneurial model of celebrity pastor, chronicled in The Rise and Fall of Mars Hill podcast, potentially leading a generation to reject pastoral ministry if that’s where it ends up!

These are all important. But in this series of posts I’m going to talk about three other factors, beginning with the one that’s probably the most straightforward to solve: funding.

The challenge of funding pastoral training

I consider this the most straightforward to solve, since it’s only money we’re talking about. But it’s still not easy. And part of the solution is to get people of my generation to comprehend the size of the problem. Let me explain.

When I ceased work to enter full-time theological study back in 1999, I was the then-typical age of 26. Affording it wasn’t easy, but we managed to live in Sydney on my wife’s salary, the generosity of our Christian landlords in not increasing our rent for those three years, and the small allowance I received from my church as a student intern. This rather typical experience can easily lead to an attitude among pastors of my generation—along with their diaconates—that says, “we did it tough; you just need to manage it, too.” But when you do the maths, it’s clear that things have significantly changed. After adjusting for inflation, Sydney rents are 40-50% higher; college fees are nearly three times as much; and the cost of living is, of course, rising more now than it has in recent memory. As the Sydney Morning Herald recently reported, “the Great Australian Dream is no longer about owning a house, it’s being able to afford the rent.”

It’s no longer merely difficult to afford to live and rent in a major city on one income; for most, it’s nearly impossible. This has had a significant impact on ability of people their late twenties to mid thirties to be afford to study full-time, if they have a household to support. The median age of Bible college students is falling, as it’s predominantly younger people who are living at home who can still afford to study. (And we can add to that the lifetime limit introduced in 2019 to FEE-HELP, the government loans programme, which can make it difficult for those studying theology as their second degree.) While colleges such as mine have created flexible study options to allow students to fit in part-time work—such as a compressed on campus timetable, livestreamed lectures—this only goes part of the way to alleviating the problem. (Part-time study is also an option, but it does slow down the leadership training process and draws out the financial pressure for longer, perhaps well into the potential child-rearing stage of life.)

One way forward is for churches to fund pastors near the start of the training process, rather than waiting to see who might be available at the end. Many, of course, are already doing this, and the trend of churches growing their own future pastors is on the increase. (That’s what happened with me, but twenty years ago I was the exception!) But as I see it, there remains a lack of awareness as to the extent of financial support that is needed in the present economy. To allow someone with a family to stop work and train for pastoral ministry, I think the minimum support needs to at least cover housing. (In return, a greater “embeddedness” in the supporting church would not only benefit the church itself, but enhance the student’s practical learning, bridging the gap between classroom and ministry.)

Not all churches have the funds to be able to do this, of course. This means we need other sources of funding that will be able to support future pastors—those who have been discerned by their church and denomination to have the calling, character, gifting, and capacity to be trained for pastoral ministry—so they can be apprenticed in churches that otherwise could not afford it. Existing scholarship programmes require more funding sources, and new programmes need to be created. Christian philanthropy should be mobilised to see this as an urgent priority.

Further, we need more creative ways of fast-tracking mid-to-late career changes, so that three or more years of full-time equivalent study doesn’t loom as a barrier to those in their forties and older who are considering the call.

The New Testament church grew through the power of the Spirit, of course, in response to the prayers of God’s people. And those prayers were answered, in part, not just by those who were willing to go, but also those who used their money, homes, and social networks to support them. We need to pray that God would once again mobilise both kinds of people.

So—how else can we fund pastoral training?

(In the next post, I’ll look at the changing demands of pastoral ministry as another factor.)